GUARANTEE AGREEMENT

Exhibit 4.12

GUARANTEE AGREEMENT

by and between

POPULAR, INC.,

as Guarantor

and

THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON,

as Guarantee Trustee

relating to

POPULAR CAPITAL TRUST II

(Formerly known as New Popular Capital Trust II)

Dated as of August 31, 2009

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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GUARANTEE AGREEMENT, dated as of August 31, 2009, between POPULAR, INC., a Commonwealth of Puerto Rico corporation (the “Guarantor”), having its principal office at 209 Muñoz Rivera Avenue, San Juan, Puerto Rico 00918, and THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON, as trustee (the “Guarantee Trustee”), for the benefit of the Holders (as defined herein) from time to time of the Capital Securities (as defined herein) of POPULAR CAPITAL TRUST II, a Delaware statutory trust, formerly known as New Popular Capital Trust II (the “Issuer Trust”).

RECITALS

WHEREAS , pursuant to an Amended and Restated Declaration of Trust and Trust Agreement, of even date herewith (the “Trust Agreement”), among Popular, Inc., as Depositor, the Property Trustee, the Delaware Trustee, and the Administrative Trustees (each as named therein) and the holders from time to time of undivided beneficial interests in the assets of the Issuer Trust, and an Agreement of Merger, dated as of August 31, 2009 (the “ Agreement of Merger ”) between the Issuer Trust and the Predecessor Issuer Trust, the Issuer Trust is issuing $130,000,000.00 aggregate Liquidation Amount (as defined in the Trust Agreement) of its 6.125% Capital Securities (liquidation amount $25 per capital security) (the “Capital Securities”), representing preferred undivided beneficial interests in the assets of the Issuer Trust and having the terms set forth in the Trust Agreement;

WHEREAS , pursuant to the Agreement of Merger the Debentures (as defined in the Trust Agreement) of the Guarantor became property of the Issuer Trust and were deposited with The Bank of New York Mellon, as Property Trustee under the Trust Agreement, as trust assets; and

WHEREAS , as an incentive for the Holders to purchase Capital Securities, the Guarantor desires irrevocably and unconditionally to agree, to the extent set forth herein, to pay to the Holders of the Capital Securities the Guarantee Payments (as defined herein) and to make certain other payments on the terms and conditions set forth herein.

NOW, THEREFORE , in consideration of the premises, the Guarantor executes and delivers this Guarantee Agreement for the benefit of the Holders from time to time.

ARTICLE I

DEFINITIONS

Section 1.1 Definitions . For all purposes of this Guarantee Agreement, except as otherwise expressly provided or unless the context otherwise requires:

(a) The terms defined in this Article have the meanings assigned to them in this Article, and include the plural as well as the singular;

(b) All other terms used herein that are defined in the Trust Indenture Act, either directly or by reference therein, have the meanings assigned to them therein;

(c) The words “include,” “includes” and “including” shall be deemed to be followed by the phrase “without limitation;”

(d) All accounting terms used but not defined herein have the meanings assigned to them in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles;

(e) Unless the context otherwise requires, any reference to an “Article” or a “Section” refers to an Article or a Section, as the case may be, of this Guarantee Agreement; and

(f) The words “hereby,” “herein,” “hereof” and “hereunder” and other words of similar import refer to this Guarantee Agreement as a whole and not to any particular Article, Section or other subdivision.

“Affiliate” of any specified Person means any other Person directly or indirectly controlling or controlled by or under direct or indirect common control with such specified Person. For the purposes of this definition, “control,” when used with respect to any specified Person, means the power to direct the management and policies of such Person, directly or indirectly, whether through the ownership of voting securities, by contract or otherwise; and the terms “controlling” and “controlled” have meanings correlative to the foregoing.

“Board of Directors” means the board of directors of the Guarantor or any committee of the board of directors of the Guarantor, comprised of one or more members of the board of directors of the Guarantor or officers of the Guarantor, or both.

“Capital Securities” has the meaning specified in the recitals to this Guarantee Agreement.

“Common Securities” means the securities representing common undivided beneficial interests in the assets of the Issuer Trust.

“Debentures” shall have the meaning specified in the Trust Agreement.

“Distributions” shall have the meaning specified in the Trust Agreement.

“Event of Default” means (i) a default by the Guarantor in any of its payment obligations under this Guarantee Agreement or (ii) a default by the Guarantor in any other obligation hereunder that remains unremedied for 30 days.

“Guarantee Agreement” means this Guarantee Agreement, as modified, amended or supplemented from time to time.

“Guarantee Payments” means the following payments or distributions, without duplication, with respect to the Capital Securities, to the extent not paid or made by or on behalf of the Issuer Trust: (i) any accumulated and unpaid Distributions required to be paid on the Capital Securities, to the extent the Issuer Trust shall have funds on hand available therefor at such time; (ii) the Redemption Price with respect to any Capital Securities called for redemption by the Issuer Trust, to the extent the Issuer Trust shall have funds on hand available therefor at such time; and (iii) upon a voluntary or involuntary dissolution, winding-up or liquidation of the Issuer Trust, unless Debentures are distributed to the Holders, the lesser of (a) the Liquidation Distribution with respect to the Capital Securities, to the extent that the Issuer Trust shall have funds on hand available therefor at such time, and (b) the amount of assets of the Issuer Trust remaining available for distribution to Holders on liquidation of the Issuer.

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“Guarantee Trustee” means The Bank of New York Mellon, solely in its capacity as Guarantee Trustee and not in its individual capacity, until a Successor Guarantee Trustee has been appointed and has accepted such appointment pursuant to the terms of this Guarantee Agreement, and thereafter means each such Successor Guarantee Trustee.

“Guarantor” has the meaning specified in the first paragraph of this Guarantee Agreement.

“Holder” means any Holder (as defined in the Trust Agreement) of any Capital Securities; provided , however , that in determining whether the holders of the requisite percentage of Capital Securities have given any request, notice, consent or waiver hereunder, “Holder” shall not include the Guarantor, the Guarantee Trustee, or any Affiliate of the Guarantor or the Guarantee Trustee.

“Indenture” means the Junior Subordinated Indenture, dated as of October 31, 2003, between Popular, Inc. and The Bank of New York Mellon (as successor to Bank One Trust Company, N.A.), as trustee, as the same may be modified, amended or supplemented from time to time.

“Issuer Trust” has the meaning specified in the first paragraph of this Guarantee Agreement.

“Liquidation Distribution” shall have the meaning specified in the Trust Agreement.

“List of Holders” has the meaning specified in Section 2.2(a).

“Majority in Liquidation Amount of the Capital Securities” means, except as provided by the Trust Indenture Act, Capital Securities representing more than 50% of the aggregate Liquidation Amount (as defined in the Trust Agreement) of all Capital Securities then Outstanding (as defined in the Trust Agreement).

“Officers’ Certificate” means, with respect to any Person, a certificate signed by the Chairman or a Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of such Person or the President or a Vice President of such Person, and by the Treasurer, an Assistant Treasurer, the Secretary or an Assistant Secretary of such Person. Any Officers’ Certificate delivered with respect to compliance with a condition or covenant provided for in this Guarantee Agreement shall include:

(a) a statement by each officer signing the Officers’ Certificate that such officer has read the covenant or condition and the definitions relating thereto;

(b) a brief statement of the nature and scope of the examination or investigation undertaken by such officer in rendering the Officers’ Certificate;

(c) a statement that such officer has made such examination or investigation as, in such officer’s opinion, is necessary to enable such officer to express an informed opinion as to whether or not such covenant or condition has been complied with; and

(d) a statement as to whether, in the opinion of such officer, such condition or covenant has been complied with.

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“Person” means a legal person, including any individual, corporation, estate, partnership, joint venture, association, joint stock company, company, limited liability company, trust, business trust, unincorporated association, or government or any agency or political subdivision thereof, or any other entity of whatever nature.

“Predecessor Issuer Trust” means Popular Capital Trust II, a Delaware statutory trust created under the Delaware Statutory Trust Act pursuant to the filing of a Certificate of Trust in the office of the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware (the “ Secretary of State ”) on September 5, 2003, which was amended by the filing of a Certificate of Amendment with the Secretary of State on November 30, 2004, and which was further amended by the filing of a Certificate of Amendment with the Secretary of State on July 17, 2009, and by the entering into that certain Declaration of Trust and Trust Agreement, dated as of September 3, 2003, which was amended and restated in its entirety by the Amended and Restated Declaration of Trust and Trust Agreement, dated as of November 30, 2004.

“Redemption Price” shall have the meaning set forth in the Trust Agreement.

“Responsible Officer” means, with respect to the Guarantee Trustee, any Senior Vice President, any Vice President, any Assistant Vice President, the Secretary, any Assistant Secretary, the Treasurer, any Assistant Treasurer, any Trust Officer or Assistant Trust Officer or any other officer of the Corporate Trust Department of the Guarantee Trustee and also means, with respect to a particular matter, any other officer to whom such matter is referred because of that officer’s knowledge of and familiarity with the particular subject.

“Successor Guarantee Trustee” means a successor Guarantee Trustee possessing the qualifications to act as Guarantee Trustee under Section 4.1.

“Trust Agreement” means the Amended and Restated Declaration of Trust and Trust Agreement of the Issuer Trust referred to in the recitals to this Guarantee Agreement, as modified, amended or supplemented from time to time.

“Trust Indenture Act” means the Trust Indenture Act of 1939 as in force at the date as of which this Guarantee Agreement was executed; provided , however , that in the event the Trust Indenture Act of 1939 is amended after such date, “Trust Indenture Act” means, to the extent required by any such amendment, the Trust Indenture Act of 1939 as so amended.

“Vice President,” when used with respect to the Guarantor, means any duly appointed vice president, whether or not designated by a number or a word or words added before or after the title “vice president.”

ARTICLE II

TRUST INDENTURE ACT

Section 2.1 Trust Indenture Act; Application .

(a) This Guarantee Agreement is subject to the provisions of the Trust Indenture Act that are required to be part of this Guarantee Agreement and shall, to the extent applicable, be governed by such provisions.

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(b) Except as otherwise expressly provided herein, if and to the extent that any provision of this Guarantee Agreement limits, qualifies or conflicts with the duties imposed by Sections 310 to 317, inclusive, of the Trust Indenture Act, such imposed duties shall control.

(c) The application of the Trust Indenture Act to this Guarantee Agreement shall not affect the nature of the Capital Securities as equity securities representing undivided beneficial interests in the assets of the Issuer Trust.

Section 2.2 List of Holders .

(a) The Guarantor shall furnish or cause to be furnished to the Guarantee Trustee (a) semiannually, on or before January 31 and July 31 of each year, a list, in such form as the Guarantee Trustee may reasonably require, of the names and addresses of the Holders (a “List of Holders”) as of a date not more than 15 days prior to the delivery thereof, and (b) at such other times as the Guarantee Trustee may request in writing, within 30 days after the receipt by the Guarantor of any such request, a List of Holders as of a date not more than 15 days prior to the time such list is furnished, in each case to the extent such information is in the possession or control of the Guarantor and has not otherwise been received by the Guarantee Trustee in its capacity as such. The Guarantee Trustee may destroy any List of Holders previously given to it on receipt of a new List of Holders.

(b) The Guarantee Trustee shall comply with the requirements of Section 311(a), Section 311(b) and Section 312(b) of the Trust Indenture Act.

Section 2.3 Reports by the Guarantee Trustee .

(a) Not later than February 28 of each year, commencing in 2010, the Guarantee Trustee shall provide to the Holders such reports as are required by Section 313 of the Trust Indenture Act, if any, in the form and in the manner provided by Section 313 of the Trust Indenture Act. If this Guarantee Agreement shall have been qualified under the Trust Indenture Act, the Guarantee Trustee shall also comply with the requirements of Section 313(d) of the Trust Indenture Act.

Section 2.4 Periodic Reports to the Guarantee Trustee .

(a) The Guarantor shall provide to the Guarantee Trustee and the Holders such documents, reports and information, if any, as required by Section 314 of the Trust Indenture Act and the compliance certificate required by Section 314 of the Trust Indenture Act, in the form, in the manner and at the times required by Section 314 of the Trust Indenture Act, provided that such documents, reports and information shall be required to be provided to the Securities and Exchange Commission only if this Guarantee Agreement shall have been qualified under the Trust Indenture Act.

Section 2.5 Evidence of Compliance with Conditions Precedent .

(a) The Guarantor shall provide to the Guarantee Trustee such evidence of compliance with such conditions precede